| 11/11/2006 | | | Timeli- | | | % past 5 | earnings | 3 - 5 yr | Yrs. Earn. | LT Debt | Annual | 2005 | | PEG | Earn | Proj. | | C | |
| Price | | ness | Safety | Beta | yrs. Earn | growth rate | apprec. | Growth | % of cap | tot ret | Earnings | P/E* | Ratio | Yield | Price | | a | |
| | | | 1 or 2 | 1,2,3 | .9-1.3 | 12 min | 12 min | min 15% | 10 min | 33% max | min 7% | | | | | (PEG) | A/B | p, | |
| Janet's ideas
to consider: | | | | Companies we know | | | | | | | | | | | |
| BKS | 42.27 | | 4 | 2 | 1.1 | 17% | 7% | 15% | 2 | 0% | 6% | 2.25 | 18.8 | 2.68 | 5.3% | 23.63 | A | M | n |
| | Barnes & Noble | | #1 US bookseller. Declining same store sales,
thin profit margins. Not appealing
now. | | | | | |
| CTX | 50.59 | | 4 | 3 | 1.30 | 30% | 1.5% | 27.5% | 0 | 45% | 6.0% | 6.40 | 7.9 | 5.27 | 12.7% | 14.40 | B++ | L | |
| | Centex Homes | | Housing is slowing, and so is Centex. 32% cancellations in home buying. Restructuring. Timing not right. | | |
| CFC | 39.88 | | 3 | 3 | 1.05 | 25% | 9% | 103% | 2 | 80% | 20% | 4.50 | 8.9 | 1.04 | 11.3% | 57.38 | B++ | L | |
| | Countrywide Financial | #1 Mortgage company in a weakening mortgage
market. Down 15% in past 3
months. Neutral | | | | |
| HD | 36.64 | | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 21% | 15% | 203% | 17 | 20% | 33% | 3.05 | 12.0 | 0.83 | 8.3% | 66.34 | A++ | L | |
| | Home Depot | | Slowdown in housing will hurt. Home repairs
are up. Price has dropped. Nice buying
opportunity for long term. | | |
| PFE | 25.71 | | 3 | 1 | 0.85 | 18% | 5% | 63% | 0 | 7% | 15% | 2.00 | 12.9 | 2.57 | 7.8% | 15.00 | A++ | L | |
| | Pfizer Inc. | | | Reducing debt, counting on new drugs in the
pipeline. Ultra strong company. Nice long term play? | | | |
| SRZ | 31.14 | | 4 | 3 | 0.85 | 16% | 19.0% | 80.0% | 1 | 19% | 15.5% | 1.20 | 26.0 | 1.37 | 3.9% | 34.20 | B | M | |
| | Sunrise Senior Living | Biggest in its field. Now into managed
services. Recent declines, but strong growth prospects. Nice entry pt? | | |
| TOL | 27.41 | | 4 | 3 | 1.40 | 33% | 7.5% | 32.5% | 0 | 32% | 6.5% | 4.50 | 6.1 | 0.81 | 16.4% | 50.63 | A | M | |
| | Toll Brothers | | Tough year and not looking so good for '07.
Great PEG, but lots to be concerned about. Not now. | | | | |
| WM | 43.04 | | 3 | 2 | 0.95 | 11% | 8.5% | 32.5% | 2 | 41% | 11.0% | 3.75 | 11.5 | 1.35 | 8.7% | 47.81 | A | L | |
| | Washington Mutual | Getting back on track. Transforming itself
into different lines. Possibly a good
long term purchase at this time. | | |
| | | | | | | | | Some exciting companies | | | | | | | | | | | |
| AET | 40.24 | | 3 | 3 | 1.05 | 17% | 19% | 90% | 4 | 17% | 18% | 2.80 | 14.4 | 0.76 | 7.0% | 79.80 | A | L | |
| | Aetna | | | | Health insurance. Solid marketshare growth. Buying back
shares. Great growth potential. Good
long term. | | |
| NBL | 49.67 | | 2 | 3 | 1.00 | 36% | 12% | -40% | 4 | 37% | -12% | 5.10 | 9.7 | 0.85 | 10.3% | 87.98 | B | L | |
| | Noble Energy | | Explores for & produces oil & gas.
Bought Patino Oil. Timely now, but be careful long term here. | | | | |
| PRU | 78.03 | | 3 | 2 | 1.05 | ? | 16% | 55% | 5 | 27% | 13% | 5.65 | 13.8 | 0.89 | 7.2% | 131.36 | A | L | |
| Prudential Financial | Life insurance. Acquiring and growing. Very
strong cash position. Impressive results. Low PEG.
Consider this one. | | | | | | |
| ORCL | 18.98 | | 1 | 3 | 1.15 | 14% | 18% | 108% | 4 | 28% | 19% | 0.80 | 23.7 | 1.32 | 4.2% | 21.60 | A | L | |
| Oracle | | | | Database software, etc. Bought PeopleSoft,
Oblix, Indian SW, Siebel. Up 9% since
April. Is this the moment??? |
| PHM | 29.15 | | 4 | 3 | 1.30 | 33% | 10% | 70% | 0 | 36% | 15% | 4.00 | 7.3 | 0.77 | 13.7% | 57.00 | A | L | |
| | Pulte Homes | | Homebuilding, financial svcs. Struggling. Has
slowed with the rest of the housing market. Not now. | | | |
| AAPL | 83.12 | | 2 | 3 | 1.05 | -1% | 36% | 33% | 3 | 0% | 7% | 2.15 | 38.7 | 1.07 | 2.6% | 116.10 | A+ | L | |
| Apple Computer | Macintosh and iPod. Now all Intel chips No debt. New cool stuff just keeps coming. PEG is good.
Buy it. | | | | | | |
| NBR | 31.88 | | 3 | 3 | 1.20 | 26% | 16% | 50% | 4 | 57% | 10% | 3.50 | 9.1 | 0.57 | 11.0% | 84.00 | B++ | L | |
| Nabors Ind. | | Worlds largest land drilling contractor. Strong financials, good margins, hefty profits. Slowed since April. | | | | | | |
| DELL | 24.89 | | 4 | 2 | 1.00 | 14% | 6% | 73% | 0 | 11% | 15% | 1.05 | 23.7 | 3.95 | 4.2% | 9.45 | A++ | L | |
| Dell Computer | | World's largest direct sales computer company.
Down 20% since April. Earnings are off. Value priced for long run? |
| 11/11/2006 | | | Timeli- | | | % past 5 | earnings | 3 - 5 yr | Yrs. Earn. | LT Debt | Annual | 2004 | | PEG | Earn | Proj. | | C | |
| Price | | ness | Safety | Beta | yrs. Earn | growth rate | apprec. | Growth | % of cap | tot ret | Earnings | P/E* | Ratio | Yield | Price | | a | |
| | | | 1 or 2 | 1,2,3 | .9-1.3 | 12 min | 12 min | min 15% | 10 min | 33% max | min 7% | | | | | (PEG) | A/B | p, | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | Worth Looking at | | | | | | | | | | | |
| UARM | 45.65 | | | 3 | | - | 26% | -20% | 1 | ? | -5% | 0.73 | 62.5 | 2.45 | 1.6% | 27.92 | B++ | M | n |
| Under Armour | | Makes sports apparel. Lots of momentum. Speculative, but
exciting. Could give the big boys a
run. | | | |
| ECA | 49.74 | | 2 | 3 | 0.95 | 30% | 11% | 30% | 4 | 24% | 8% | 3.80 | 13.1 | 1.19 | 7.6% | 62.70 | B++ | L | |
| EnCana Corp | | Explores for and produces crude oil, gas. Buying back stock, reducing debt. OK for
now, perhaps. | | | |
| EBAY | 32.81 | | 4 | 3 | 1.20 | 98% | 20% | 163% | 0 | 0% | 17% | 0.70 | 46.9 | 2.34 | 2.1% | 21.00 | A+ | L | |
| EBAY | | | | Internet Auctions. Profitable every year. 72 million users in
'05. Down 17% lately. Untimely. | | | | |
| JBL | 29.80 | | 4 | 3 | 1.55 | 11% | 19% | 103% | 4 | 12% | 20% | 1.35 | 22.1 | 1.19 | 4.5% | 37.46 | B++ | M |
| | Jabil Circuit | | Turnkey circuit board builder. Buying back
shares. Restructuring. Not buying this
one for a year or so. | | | |
| HELE | 23.97 | | 4 | 3 | 0.95 | 21% | 5% | 168% | 1 | 35% | 22% | 1.75 | 13.7 | 2.74 | 7.3% | 13.13 | B+ | S | |
| | Helen of Troy | | Designs, sells hair dryers, curling irons,
etc. Acquisitions coming. Still value
priced for long term. | | | |
| PSUN | 18.56 | | 5 | 3 | 1.10 | 25% | 7% | 113% | 0 | 0% | 20% | 1.00 | 18.6 | 2.86 | 5.4% | 9.75 | B++ | M | n |
| | Pacific Sunwear | Share price fell 30% since may. Long term, it looks OK, but fashion
problems right now. | | | | | |
| GOOG | 473.55 | | - | 3 | | - | 81% | 103% | 3 | 0% | 19% | 9.10 | 52.0 | 0.65 | 1.9% | 1098.83 | A | L | |
| | Google | | | World's leading Internet search engine.
Speculative, but look at that PEG ratio. | | | | | | |
| MIK | 43.99 | | 3 | 3 | 1.40 | 25% | 14% | 35% | 9 | 0% | 9% | 1.90 | 23.2 | 1.65 | 4.3% | 39.90 | A | L | n |
| | Michaels Stores | | Has gone
private. Won't be covering this one
any more. | | | | | | | | |
| BLL | 42.08 | | 3 | 3 | 0.90 | 27% | 10% | 40% | 1 | 71% | 10% | 2.75 | 15.3 | 1.61 | 6.5% | 39.19 | B++ | M |
| | Ball Corp. | | | Mfr. metal and plastic packaging. Improving, but still not a hot shot. | | | | | | | |
| LLL | 79.06 | | 3 | 3 | 0.85 | 31% | 12% | 98% | 8 | 51% | 19% | 4.95 | 16.0 | 1.33 | 6.3% | 89.10 | B+ | L | |
| | L-3 Communications | Supplier of high-data-rate communications
systems for defense. 2 digit earnings growth. Continues strong | | |
| OCR | 37.99 | | 4 | 3 | 0.95 | 21% | 10% | 73% | 6 | 49% | 15% | 2.95 | 12.9 | 1.29 | 7.8% | 44.25 | B++ | M |
| | Omnicare, Inc. | | Provides pharmacy mgmt. services to 40% of
people in nursing homes. Troubles lately.
Untimely lately. | | | |
| TBL | 31.74 | | 5 | 3 | 0.95 | 17% | 9% | 65% | 0 | 0% | 13% | 1.67 | 19.0 | 2.24 | 5.3% | 21.29 | A | M | n |
| | Timberland | | Mfr. footwear & clothes. Buying back
stock, no debt. Modest sales growth.
Untimely. | | | | | |
| FL | 23.61 | | 4 | 3 | 1.10 | 29% | 7% | 55% | 0 | 11% | 13% | 1.60 | 14.8 | 2.11 | 6.8% | 16.80 | B++ | M | n |
| | FootLocker | | Specialty retailer. OK in US, but
international is the key. Takeover prospect? Price may pop. | | | | |
| GPS | 20.19 | | 3 | 3 | 1.10 | 2% | 20% | 55% | 0 | 9% | 13% | 1.15 | 17.6 | 0.88 | 5.7% | 34.50 | A | L | n |
| | The Gap | | | 3,022 stores worldwide. Banana Republic, Old
Navy. Starting to improve. Value prop? | | | | | |
| ACS | 48.73 | | 4 | 3 | 1.25 | 28% | 11% | 115% | 0 | 39% | 21% | 2.90 | 16.8 | 1.53 | 6.0% | 47.85 | A | L | |
| | Affil. Comp. Svcs. | Provides business process outsourcing and IT
svcs. Mixed results lately. Untimely. | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 11/11/2006 | | | Timeli- | | | % past 5 | earnings | 3 - 5 yr | Yrs. Earn. | LT Debt | Annual | 2005 | | PEG | Earn | Proj. | | C | |
| Price | | ness | Safety | Beta | yrs. Earn | growth rate | apprec. | Growth | % of cap | tot ret | Earnings | P/E* | Ratio | Yield | Price | | a | |
| | | | 1 or 2 | 1,2,3 | .9-1.3 | 12 min | 12 min | min 15% | 10 min | 33% max | min 7% | | | | | (PEG) | A/B | p, | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | Pricey now, but keep an eye on these guys | | | | | | | | | | |
| IVGN | 57.00 | | 3 | 3 | 0.85 | - | 10% | 50% | 0 | 36% | 10% | 2.10 | 27.1 | 2.86 | 3.7% | 29.93 | B++ | M |
| | Invitrogen | | | Supplier of life science research tools.
Underperforming in certain areas. Dilution.
Average, boring. | | | |
| APPB | 23.99 | | 5 | 3 | 0.85 | 16% | 10% | 58% | 0 | 30% | 12% | 1.15 | 20.9 | 2.20 | 4.8% | 16.39 | B++ | M |
| | AppleBee's | | Flat
and steady. Buying back stock. Expanding stores and menu. Untimely, but
good long term. | | | |
| WFMI | 48.97 | | 3 | 3 | 1.00 | 22% | 17% | 23% | 6 | 1% | 6% | 0.60 | 81.6 | 4.80 | 1.2% | 15.30 | A | L | |
| Whole Foods Mkt | Workd's largest natural and organic foods
grocer. Pricey, but it is the
gorilla. Motley Fools big choice. | | | |
| FDX | 114.75 | | 2 | 3 | 1.05 | 17% | 13% | 55% | 5 | 12% | 12% | 5.98 | 19.2 | 1.54 | 5.2% | 112.13 | B++ | L | |
| | FedEx Corp. | | Performing well, although share price is down
lately. It might be a nice time to buy
some. | | | | | |
| SBUX | 37.79 | | 3 | 3 | 0.85 | 28% | 21% | 93% | 14 | 1% | 18% | 0.72 | 52.5 | 2.50 | 1.9% | 22.68 | A | L | |
| | Starbucks | | | Big price drop lately due to soft sales
data. Still very strong and
growing. Good entry point. Buy now. | | | |
| CVS | 28.96 | | 3 | 3 | 0.90 | 9% | 14% | 63% | 5 | 16% | 13% | 1.52 | 19.1 | 1.36 | 5.2% | 31.92 | A+ | L | |
| | CVS Corp | | | Nation's largest drug chain. Acquiring Sav-On and Osco units. Very strong for next patient investors. | | | |
| WAG | 42.37 | | 1 | 1 | 0.80 | 16% | 17% | 80% | 16 | 0% | 16% | 1.72 | 24.6 | 1.45 | 4.1% | 43.86 | A++ | L | |
| | Walgreen Co. | | Nation's largest drug chain by sales.
Expanding, 450 new stores. 17% earnings growth. Strong and growing. Buy? | |
| BFAM | 39.27 | | 1 | 3 | 0.80 | 33% | 22% | 53% | 8 | 1% | 11% | 1.55 | 25.3 | 1.18 | 3.9% | 49.99 | B+ | S | n |
| | Bright Horizons | | Provides childcare for employers. Expanding 50 new centers. Growing demand.
Growing appeal. Watch this one. | |
| WMT | 46.47 | | 2 | 1 | 0.80 | 16% | 11% | 45% | 17 | 33% | 12% | 2.87 | 16.2 | 1.54 | 6.2% | 45.20 | A++ | L | n |
| | Wal-Mart | | | World's largest retailer. Same store sales
growth dropping. Still the
gorilla. Be patient with this one. | | | |
| HOG | 71.00 | | 2 | 3 | 0.95 | 27% | 11% | 48% | 15 | 25% | 12% | 3.85 | 18.4 | 1.68 | 5.4% | 63.53 | B++ | L | |
| | Harley Davidson | Profits still climbing, as are inventories. Up
16% since April. Timeliness of 2. Looks good! | | | | |
| DIS | 32.4 | | 1 | 3 | 1.35 | 5% | 15% | 75% | 4 | 23% | 15% | 1.55 | 20.9 | 1.39 | 4.8% | 34.88 | A | L | |
| | Disney | | | | Up 6% since April. Growing its earnings. Ranked 1 in Timeliness. Good 3 - 5 yr.
Potential. Buy now??? | | | |
| UVN | 35.21 | | - | 3 | 1.55 | 16% | 16% | 50% | 5 | 18% | 11% | 1.10 | 32.0 | 2.07 | 3.1% | 25.58 | B+ | L | |
| | Univsion | | | Looks like it is going to be bought out. | | | | | | | | | | |
| EMN | 59.73 | | 3 | 3 | 1.05 | 1% | 24% | 100% | 0 | 46% | 21% | 4.90 | 12.2 | 0.51 | 8.2% | 176.40 | B+ | M |
| | Eastman Chemical | Mfr plastic, chemical and fiber products. When is this stock ever going to move? Good company, tiny PEG. | | |
| PG | 63.70 | | 3 | 1 | 0.60 | 11% | 9% | 35% | 17 | 36% | 10% | 2.64 | 24.1 | 2.68 | 4.1% | 35.64 | A++ | L | |
| | Proctor & Gamble | Makes detergents, toiletries, etc. Strong cash
flow. Strong and growing. For
conservative investor. Untimely. | | |
| HPQ | 39.99 | | 1 | 3 | 1.40 | -3% | 15% | 38% | 4 | 6% | 9% | 2.00 | 20.0 | 1.38 | 5.0% | 43.50 | A+ | L | |
| | Hewlett-Packard | Posting good numbers. Printer sales up 15%,
rolling out new products. Scandal on the
board. Still a good choice. |
